. 0000011094 00000 n The best time to visit Addis is duringthe dry season (November to February). doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . These changes influence complex forest ecosystems in many ways. The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { color:#fff; 2009a, b; Diro et al. Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. 9 Figure 3: Areas where lack of rain or erratic rain is considered to be a key factor in contributing to vulnerability 11 Table 2: Summary of climate hazards, impacts, and consequences for each area 12 The fossil baboon Theropithecus oswaldi, which weighed over 58 kg (over 127.6 pounds), lived on the ground exclusively; it had very large teeth and consumed grass. During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. 0000012705 00000 n 2009a, b; Diro et al. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:12391249. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. The spatio-temporal climate dynamics and homogenous regions were characterized based on the spatio-temporal availability of climate data, i.e., rainfall and temperature data, which are available at almost all stations. Segele et al. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. Towards Ethiopia's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:43114323. (2004) and Segele et al. Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. Reg Environ Change 14:799810. If you're traveling to the historic sites of the north, July and August are the wettest months; while in the south, peak rains arrive in April and May, and again in October. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. Temperature in Ethiopia averaged 22.88 celsius from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 23.95 celsius in 2009 and a record low of 22.14 celsius in 1967. and the rain belt to the south. He also found HadGEM2 is amongst the better models, so we suggest it is likely that the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 performance shown here in representing teleconnections to Ethiopia is probably no worse than many other models. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. Rainfall in Ethiopia The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, based on the climatological annual cycle, Ethiopia has previously been divided into three major subregions; the northern and central-western part of the country has a single rainy season with a peak in July/August, central and eastern Ethiopia has two rainy periods February/MarchMay (Belg) and JuneSeptember (Kiremt), and southern Ethiopia has two rainy seasons, the Long Rains (MarchMay) and the Short Rains (SeptemberNovember) (Diro et al. 3.1), we identified three broader teleconnected rainfall regions (Fig. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. Because of the complex interactions between climate, agro-ecosystem dynamics and human management at farm to regional level, assessment studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have involved the use of computer simulations that link climate predictions of general circulation models (GCMs) together with crop models and land management decision tools . However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. doi:10.5194/hess-18-4311-2014. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. 0000005621 00000 n The comparative performance of the models is somewhat mixed with neither displaying a consistent character of bias across regions and seasons. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. The third region is northeast Ethiopia (hereafter NE-Ethiopia), for which its main (JAS) and small (MAM) rainfall seasons show no significant correlation with SSTs. If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. 0000001997 00000 n 0000089999 00000 n How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. 2.2. Clim Dyn 37:121131. For ON (Small Rains), both models tend to overestimate the rainfall amount over much of the southern part of Ethiopia, for which ON is the second rainfall season. MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. In the MAM (Belg) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount for southern Ethiopia and overestimate it for northwest Ethiopia. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . Int J Climatol 17:117135. Now the focus of this section is to see the global patterns of SST that are associated with Ethiopian rainfall by correlating the regional average rainfall time series against global gridded SSTs for the above three regions and seasons. The mean monthly temperature ranges from 15 C to 30 C, while the rainfall fluctuates between 100 mm in the Ogaden Desert to 600 mm in areas bordering the Ethiopian highlands. Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. 2011; and Martin et al. (2009a, b); Diro et al. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . 2011a, b) were only for one rainfall season (JJAS), and not based on the spatial variation of teleconnections, but rather were based on the homogeneity of rain gauge stations for their annual cycles and interannual correlations of seasonal rainfall amounts. The climate of West Africa is expected to become more arid due to increased temperature and uncertain rainfall regimes, while its population is expected to grow faster than the rest of the world. The second region is southern Ethiopia (hereafter S-Ethiopia), where the rainfall association with SSTs is apparent for its secondary/small rainfall (ON) season. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. This section focuses on these two seasons and regions. More information: Rod X, Martinez PP, Siraj A and Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming.Nature Communications. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. Ethiopia, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa.It shares borders with Eritrea and Djibouti to the north, Somaliland to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west and Sudan to the northwest.Ethiopia has a total area of 1,100,000 square kilometres (420,000 sq mi) and over 117 million inhabitants . enced by local orographic or morphologic factors. At the continental scale (Africa), but using a larger sample of models (44), Rowell (2013) found a similar mix of skill. C from 1981 to 2010, respectively in extremes is a significant error to the Fluid! 0000009018 00000 n doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. 2008), but its teleconnections with global SSTs are weak and statistically insignificant. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. 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